On Sunday, we're voting on a non-issue

What threatens us is population decline! By Xavier Comtesse & Philippe Labouchère

An article available in AGEFI: https://agefi.com/actualites/opinions/dimanche-nous-votons-sur-un-faux-probleme

The data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) are clear: without immigration, the Swiss demographic structure and economy would face a major shock of population contraction, the main corollary of which would be aging.

Here is how this reality translates into concrete terms:

1. The Swiss population surpassed 9 million inhabitants at the end of 2024. However, this increase is not due to the birth rate, which is steadily declining (the fertility rate is stagnating at around 1.3 to 1.4 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1). It is net migration that compensates for this deficit and maintains population growth .

2. Immigration acts as a direct brake on the aging of the population. People who immigrate to Switzerland share very marked demographic characteristics: the average age of foreign nationals in Switzerland is around 37 years, compared to 44.5 years for Swiss nationals; around 72% of the foreign population in Switzerland is active compared to only 56% of the Swiss; foreigners include only 8% retirees in their ranks, while seniors (65 years and over) represent around 20% of the Swiss national population.

This age imbalance has an impact on consumption as well as on the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors' Insurance (OASI) . Indeed, the first pillar of the Swiss pension system is based on a pay-as-you-go principle: today's workers pay the pensions of current retirees.

A real-life case: Japan

Japan is the world's laboratory for this phenomenon of demographic decline: its population has been decreasing since 2008. The main economic problems generated by such a system, illustrated by the Japanese case, are as follows:

1. Labor shortage and declining production

2. Social protection funding crisis

3. Explosion of public debt

4. Deflation and a decline in domestic consumption

5. Real estate devaluation and the bankruptcy of regional infrastructure

The population decline is not evenly distributed: it is primarily emptying the countryside (the Swiss People's Party 's stronghold in Switzerland) and small towns in favor of megacities (like Tokyo). The phenomenon of "akiya" (abandoned houses) is hitting the country hard. There are now several million empty homes that remain unoccupied, causing the local real estate market to collapse . Furthermore, maintaining roads,hospitals , and water systems for depopulating villages is becoming a financial drain on local communities.

How are the Japanese reacting?

Japan has traditionally refused immigration (unlike Switzerland), which forces it to seek other solutions that now serve as models for the rest of the world:

- Automation and robotics: using robots for elderly care, hotel reception or agriculture.

• The extension of working life: it is very common to see Japanese people working well beyond 65 or 70 years old (taxi drivers, security, services).

• Targeted economic opening: the government recently created new visas to attract skilled and semi-skilled foreign workers, breaking a historical taboo.

In short, before launching into politically and economically dangerous discussions, one should get informed…

By Xavier Comtesse & Philippe Labouchère